牛牛高手心水论坛

中国中产阶级的真相,澳大利亚网友评

------------译者:世界那么大呢-

Behind China's recent 6.9 per cent growth in GDP lies a bigger fact: between 2009 and 2030 the country will add 850 million to its middle class. I would call that a killer fact.

在中国近期6.9%的GDP增长背后有一个更大的事实:在2009年到2030年之间,这个国家将会有8亿5千万人成为中产阶级。我得说这是一个致命的事实。

Nothing else on Canberra's agenda – talk about innovation relations with India or tax cuts for business – competes with that statistic for its potential impact on Australian living standards. It is equivalent to a new continent emerging somewhere to Australia's north with 850 million more consumers asking Australia to fill its supermarkets sell them places in our schools and universities invest our expertise in aged and health care and let them come as tourists investors and cashed-up migrants.

鉴于这个数字对澳大利亚人未来生活水准的潜在影响如此之大,在堪培拉的议程表上,诸如与印度的全新关系、削减商业税之类的议题还没有什么能和它相提并论。相当于在澳大利亚北方出现了一片新兴大陆,多出了8亿5千万消费者,他们需要我们来填满超市,需要我们出售大学和学校的席位,发挥我们在养老和医疗保险上的专业知识,还会以游客投资者和富裕移民的身份来我们这里。

-------------译者:恭-

A killer fact that sweet deserves to be interrogated. To what extent can we trust it?

这么好的事应该被审评。我们能相信它到什么程度?

It was presented in a 2010 OECD working paper by Dr Homi Kharas now co-director in the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution. His prediction was that by 2030 Europe would add only 16 million to its middle class. Small stuff and North America's middle class was set to shrink by 16 million. In this context 850 million more middle-class Chinese dominate world economic prospects. That means the Chinese middle class will grow from 12 per cent of its population in 2009 to 73 per cent in 2030. By middle class Kharas means household income equivalent to between $US16000 ($20254) and $US160000 per year a widely used definition.

由Homi Kharas博士即布鲁金斯学会全球经济和发展项目的共同主任所编写的关于2012经合组织的工作论文。他的预测是,到了2030,欧洲中产阶级只会增加1600万人。北美洲的中产阶级将缩减1600万人。在这一背景下,新增8.5亿人的中国中产阶级将主宰世界经济前景。这意味着中国新兴中产阶级将从2009的占人口12%增长到2030的73%,每个家庭收入在16000美元 (20254澳元)和160000美元之间。

-------------译者:恭-

I recently learnt that Kharas had released a new report this one for Brookings. He has had access to more accurate data. For that first survey China had provided price data for only 11 cities or provinces. The latest was able to cover all provinces. This has enabled a more accurate mapping of the middle-class explosion.

我最近得知Kharas已经在布鲁金斯学会发布了一份新的报告,他有机会获得更准确的数据了。在第一次调查中,仅仅包含了中国11个省市提供的价格数据,最新的一份报告能够覆盖所有省份,这可以更准确地预测出中产阶级爆炸式的出现。

The new report confirms China's middle class growth is on track.

新的报告证实了中国的中产阶级正在增长。

Kharas has however upxed one essential: the spending of this expanded middle class is already much greater than in his original study.

然而Kharas提出至关重要的一点:这一正在逐步扩大的中产阶级消费已经比他原来的研究更大了。

-------------译者:恭-

The original study forecast that China would account for $US10 trillion in consumption or 18 per cent of the global total. That compares with $US4 trillion and 7 per cent in the US and $12.8 trillion and 23 per cent in India.

最初的研究预测,中国将会有10万亿美元的消费量,将占全球消费总额的18%。相比之下,美国是4万亿美元和7%,而印度则是12.8万亿美元和23%。

The new study shows China's spending will reach $US14.3 trillion accounting for 22 per cent of the global total. By contrast projections for India's share have contracted: middle-class spending there will be worth $US10.7 trillion and 17 per cent. When I spoke to Kharas about his latest findings he told me India's performance was disappointing: "We reduced our estimates of India's growth. It's not doing as well as China and South Korea did at comparable stages. It should be growing at double digit rates."

新的研究显示,中国的消费将达到14.3万亿,将占全球消费总额的22%。而印度的份额对比预测有所缩减:中产阶级的消费将有10.7万亿美元,占17%。当我和Kharas谈论他的最新研究结果的时候,他告诉我,印度的表现真令人失望:“我们降低了印度的经济增长预测,在同等阶段,印度并没有表现的和中国和韩国一样好,它应该是以两位数的速度增长的。”

The projections for the US middle class have not changed: it will account for just 7 per cent of global spending.

对美国中产阶级的预测没有改变:它只占全球支出的7%。

评论翻译

-------------译者:恭-

gavJul 27 2017 at 12:33am
We still have people who think its fine for our high schools to pump out uneducated monolingual graduates though.

我们仍然有人认为,我们的高中教育出没文化的只会一种语言的毕业生是没问题的。

AEGISJul 27 2017 at 5:00am
This is soft power outreach on the part of the Chinese Government. This narrative is part of shaping opinion in favour of things like the current Belt and Road Initiative (new Silk Road) and normalising Mainland Chinese activities in the South China Sea and Antartica.

这是中国的软实力宣传,这种宣传将形成舆论,从而支持一路一带(新丝路)以及正常化中国在南海和南极洲的活动。

What it misses out on is where the money to support this spending is coming from. The new Chinese middle class has never known a recession let it is living on higher levels of debt than we would be comfortable with.

支持这笔开支的资金来自哪里?这是一个遗漏的问题,中国新兴的中产阶级从未经历过经济衰退,他们的债务水平比我们所能适应的债务水平还要高。

There will be a crash - that is economic reality. Then the Chinese middle class will have to revisit its wants and needs.

这将会有一场灾难,那就是经济现实。这样中国的中产阶级将不得不重新审视自己的需求。

-------------译者:huster-

fizzybeerBAN ALL DONORSJul 27 2017 at 5:05am
I do believe the Chinese are donating to the school system in some way.
It is also a matter of fact that they are donating to the Australian political process in some way.
Dastyari may be one who is well placed to explain exactly how that works but I have no doubt other politicians and ex politicians would also be in a position to help us with our understanding of all that entails.

我相信中国人在某种程度上是在为学校系统捐款。
事实上他们也在以某种方式向澳大利亚的政治进程捐款。
Dastyari可能是一个很好地解释了这些如何起作用的人,但我毫不怀疑,其他政客和前政治家们也会帮助我们理解一切。

转载请注明出处!:首页 > 网贴翻译 > 澳大利亚 » 中国中产阶级的真相,澳大利亚网友评